Worse yet, over ½ of those 55 million were dialup users. That’s about 36X smaller than today’s 2B. The total Consumer Internet market was 55 million people. When Netscape peaked in the late 90s, we had 90% market share and 50 million users. To find out whether or not today’s public technology companies have hit bubble valuations, let’s compare some companies that survived the great bubble with their bubble era valuations: If publicly traded technology companies are not at bubble-like prices, then private technology valuations aren’t either because they are roughly equivalent. This has generally been the case for the bulk of deals that we’ve seen at Andreessen Horowitz. Similarly, in recent high profile private financing rounds for private technology companies with valuations over $1B, the valuation multiples were at or below corresponding multiples for publicly traded companies such as Google. In the great bubble of 1998-2000, the boom in public valuations mirrored the boom in private valuations. Let’s look at public market comparables and venture capital flows to see if we can find a match.
High valuations are fine if the underlying value is there. As we do so, keep in mind that the relevant bubble statistic is not valuation. Since so many distinguished people report a broad variety of qualitative bubble signs, let’s attempt to pattern match the quantitative data. A Comparison Between Today’s “Bubble” and the Last Tech Bubble
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